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| ICC |
India's emphatic 295-run win against Australia in Perth has kept their hopes alive for the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) Final. While this victory propelled India to the top of the WTC points table, the competition remains intense, with South Africa, Australia, New Zealand, and Sri Lanka also vying for the top two spots.
With this being India’s final Test series in the current WTC cycle, here are four key scenarios that could lead to their qualification:
Scenario 1: India Wins the Series 5-0, 4-1, 4-0, or 3-0
- What happens: If India wins the series against Australia by any of these margins, they will qualify directly for the final without depending on other results.
- Impact: Such dominant victories would eliminate Australia from the race and secure India's spot at Lord's in June 2025.
Scenario 2: India Wins 3-1
- What happens: A 3-1 series win against Australia would keep India in contention, but their fate would partially depend on South Africa's performance against Sri Lanka.
- Conditions for qualification:
- South Africa must not win the second Test against Sri Lanka.
- A draw between South Africa and Sri Lanka in the Test series would also favor India.
- Risk: If Sri Lanka loses to South Africa, India could miss out despite a 3-1 series win.
Scenario 3: India Wins 3-2
- What happens: A 3-2 victory would complicate India's path.
- Conditions for qualification:
- Sri Lanka must win their ongoing Test series against South Africa.
- In their two-match series against Australia starting January 29, Sri Lanka needs to secure at least one draw.
- Challenge: India would rely heavily on Sri Lanka's performance in both the South Africa and Australia series.
Scenario 4: India Draws the Series 2-2
- What happens: A series draw significantly reduces India's chances of qualification.
- Conditions for qualification:
- South Africa must beat Sri Lanka 2-0 in their current series.
- Sri Lanka must win their series against Australia 1-0 (but not 2-0).
- Sri Lanka must avoid a 0-2 loss to Australia.
- Implication: This scenario puts India at the mercy of multiple results across different series, making their path to the final extremely narrow.
Key Challenges Ahead
India must maintain focus and secure decisive victories in the remaining matches against Australia. Simultaneously, their qualification depends on the outcomes of matches involving South Africa, Sri Lanka, and Australia. Fans will keenly watch these matches as the race to the WTC Final heats up.
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